Paget's Pick-Six: First impressions of 2023

A look around the NFL with Brian Paget

With Week 1 in the books, it’s time for some overreactions. Here’s a look at the state of the league ahead of our second Sunday of the season.

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1 — Surprises

• Browns —

  Sure, the weather was bad, but the job that Cleveland’s defense did in Week 1 shouldn’t be overlooked. Now led by Jim Schwartz, that unit looks like it could become one of the league’s best, so if Deshaun Watson returns to form, watch out for the Browns. There’s a path toward them becoming real contenders in the AFC. As of now, though, Watson still has a ways to go.

• Packers —

  I’m not sure what the Packers’ ceiling is in 2023, but Jordan Love has my attention. He looked comfortable and played a clean game last week without his No. 1 wide receiver, albeit against a weak defense. I’m curious to see how Green Bay fares in the coming weeks but life after Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look so bad.

• Raiders —

  I thought the Raiders would be a bit of a train wreck, so I came away from Sunday impressed. Josh McDaniels is a flawed leader, but his rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo is no joke. I don’t see Las Vegas sneaking into the playoffs, yet the Raiders look like they’ll be a lot more competitive than I expected.

2 — Disappointments

• Vikings —

  I’m cheating a bit on this one since the Vikings have now fallen to 0-2, but it appears their good fortune from last year has not carried over. The offense can certainly still put up points, but it doesn’t look like Minnesota has enough talent on defense to replicate their 2022 success. The Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers really stings.

• Bears —

  I thought Justin Fields looked OK, but the Bears' horizontal offensive attack was discouraging. And the defense is still a problem. I’m curious to see how Chicago fares against Tampa Bay this week on both sides of the ball. You’d hope their offense, in particular, shows signs of life considering the Buccaneers’ defense allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for almost 350 yards last week and will be without Carlton Davis.

• Broncos —

  Denver looked fine in Week 1. The Broncos will certainly be better than they were last year, and I expect them to improve over the course of the season. But Sean Payton had Russel Wilson playing like a game manager last week, and that’s not gonna cut it.

3 — Flukes

• Giants —

  I’m not sure the Giants make it back to the playoffs in 2023, but they are not nearly as bad as they looked on Sunday night. This year’s roster is undoubtedly better than last year’s. Their all-star coaching staff is still in place. The thing holding New York back is its difficult schedule.

• Cardinals —

  I’m going in the opposite direction on this one. The Cardinals hung tough with the Commanders in Week 1. I don’t expect them to be all that competitive going forward. Remember, the Jaguars beat the Colts in Week 1 of 2020. They lost their next 15 games en route to Trevor Lawrence. I still think Arizona is headed down a similar path.

• Steelers —

  While I have concerns about their Matt Canada-led offense, the Steelers — and Kenny Pickett — are much better than they showed last week. The Diontate Johnson injury is a big blow, but I expect Pittsburgh to put up a much better fight on Monday night.

4 — Rookie Ramblings

• Bryce Young had an up-and-down debut, but he’s going to be just fine. His wide receivers aren’t doing him any favors, though.

• The early returns on the Texans’ draft class were very encouraging. CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. both looked the part against Baltimore.

• Anthony Richardson unsurprisingly looks like a perfect fit in Shane Steichen’s offense. It’s not hard to see why he’s been compared to Jalen Hurts.

• I’m not concerned about the Week 1 usage of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. The touches will come. Breece Hall had six carries in Week 1 last year before taking off.

• I remain all-in on Zay Flowers. And so do the Ravens.

• Better days are ahead for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Don’t forget, he’s fresh off wrist surgery. Look for him to be very involved as early as this week.

• The Vikings should probably try to get the ball in Jordan Addison’s hands more. I’ve already seen enough K.J. Osborn targets.

• Well, Philadelphia looks to have gotten a steal in Jalen Carter. Shocker.

• I think it’s only a matter of time until Dalton Kincaid emerges as the No. 2 option for Josh Allen. Buffalo should continue to ease him in, but Brandon Beane traded up for the highly-touted tight end for a reason.

5 — The Unanswered Question

How good could the Jets have been with Aaron Rodgers?

After watching Gang Green take down the Bills without their savior, it’s hard to believe the Jets would have been anything other than legitimate Super Bowl contenders. I’d say the preseason hype was warranted.

Perhaps we’ll find out in 2024. Or in 2023?

6 — Paget’s Pick-Six

1. The Bengals rebound in a big way against a banged-up Baltimore squad.

2. With or without Travis Kelce, the Chiefs prevail in this Divisional Round rematch.

3. The Broncos’ defense gets the better of Sam Howell and Russel Wilson does just enough to get Sean Payton his first win with Denver.

4. Josh Allen proves that the Jets just have his number and that the Bills are still the Bills.

5. Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals’ offense struggle with Wink Martindale’s exotic pressures.

6. The Saints spoil Bryce Young’s home debut and cruise past the Panthers.